Soyabean Update :The La Niña-induced drought in Argentina and southern Brazil continues to reduce soybean and corn yield potential, so weather remains the main driver of price increases. However, in the near future in these regions, as well as in the US winter wheat growing zone, it will rain, which will slightly reduce pressure on quotes.
In the south of Brazil, showers are expected within 7-10 days, which will favorably affect the late crops of soybeans and corn. Dry weather will continue in the center and north of the country, allowing soybeans to be harvested and second-crop corn to be sown, as soil moisture is high due to recent rainfall. On February 10, the Conab agency lowered the forecast for soybean production from 140.5 to 125.4 million tons (134 million tons in the February USDA report), and corn production – only by 0.6 million tons to 112.3 million tons (USDA 114 million tons). ) due to an increase in second-crop corn production in the country compared to last year by 42% to 86 million tons.
Argentina will experience hot weather for 7-10 days with intermittent showers, but the rainfall will not be enough to improve the condition of soybean and corn crops, so it will continue to deteriorate. Local experts believe that dry weather could lead to a “food disaster”, as happened in 2018, if precipitation does not increase in the second half of February.
The corn harvest in Argentina in 2021/22 MY is estimated at 48 million tons by the Rosario exchange, 51 million tons by the Buenos Aires exchange, and 54 million tons by the USDA. The soybean harvest in the country in 2021/22 MY is estimated by the Rosario exchange at 40.5 million tons, the Buenos Aires exchange – at 42 million tons, USDA – at 45 million tons.
The US Midwest and Southwest Plains will see showers and snow next week, replenishing winter crops with above-normal temperatures. The northwestern regions of the US are still experiencing drought and rainfall levels remain low there.