KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives may see some trading recovery next week amid the current attractive price levels.
However, Singapore-based Palm Oil Analytics’ owner and co-founder Sathia Varqa said the recovery may not be sustainable as investors are awaiting the Sept 1-20 production numbers to be released during the week.
‘’Better Sept 1-20 production figures will trigger selling pressure,’’ , adding that bullish exports expectation for the month does not appear to be enough to fuel interest.
According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), CPO output increased by 9.67 per cent to 1.72
million tonnes in August from 1.57 million tonnes in July, while palm oil stocks rose 18.16 per cent
to 2.09 million tonnesfrom 1.77 million tonnes previously.
In terms of production, August has so far been the best month for the year.
However, he reckoned that the country had a strong start to the peak production season, aided by favourable weather comprising short bursts of rain, and September production growth may not be as strong.
Palm oil trading David Ng said the market is expected to trade slightly on an upward bias given the stronger demand seen recently.
However, he noted that the stocks levels are high, which may pressure prices.
Interband Group of Companies senior palm oil trader Jim Teh said the current price may be able to attract physical buyers, especially with India preparing for the Deepavali festive season next week.
“This will help to clear our mounting inventories. In total, stocks in Malaysia and Indonesia amounted
to seven million tonnes,” he said, adding that it is positive for the futures market.
The market kicked off the week on a positive note given strong buying activities from India
amid expectation of strong exports during the month.
However, it failed to sustain the uptrend and retreated on Wednesday and Thursday following sharp losses in the soybean market.
The futures market was also weigh down by Indonesia’s move to cut CPO reference price.
Indonesia reportedly set its CPO reference price at US$846.32 per tonne for the Sept 16-30
period, down from US$929.66 per tonne during the first half of the month.
The new reference price would place the export tax at US$52 per tonne, lower from the current US$74 per tonne.
During the holiday-shortened week, CPO futures contracts for spot month October 2022 rose
RM117 to RM3,659 a tonne, November 2022 was RM145 higher at RM3,724 a tonne,
December 2022 added RM162 to RM3,783 a tonne and January 2023 increased RM156 to RM3,824 a tonne.
February 2023 improved RM165 to RM3,880 a tonne and March 2023 was RM143 better at RM3,914.
Total weekly volume, however, slipped to 245,948 lots from 344,758 lots in the previous week,
while open interest narrowed to 206,287 contracts from 261,706 contracts at the end of last week.
Physical CPO price for September South rose RM100 to RM3,750 a tonne.