SINGAPORE:As the bounce from $6.54 may have ended, CBOT May wheat futures may fall further into the range of $6.73-1/2 to $6.79-3/4 per bushel. From the low of $6.61 on March 10, wave c, the third wave of an irregular flat, was the driving force behind the bounce.
However, this wave is extremely unlikely to extend to $7.37-1/4 because the fall from the March 29 high of $7.24 appears to be so deep. while obstruction is at $6.93-1/4, a break above which could prompt an increase into $6.98-1/4 to $7.05-1/2 territory.
Concerns about Russian supplies cause agricultural commodities at the Chicago Exchange to fall for the first time in five sessions, but losses were contain. Cargill, a global grains trading company, announced that it will not deal with Russian grains at its own export station.
Cargill said on Wednesday that it will stop working with the largest wheat futures supplier at its own export station starting in July as a further step to get out of the Russian market.
If Moscow recommended a temporary reduction in grain exports, as some Russian media suggested, Russian exports could also hampered.
However, sources cited by Reuters stated that while Russia does not intend to halt wheat exports, it will request that exporters raise prices for farmers in order to cover production costs.
On the other hand, Ukrainian authority information showed Ukrainian grain trades rose to 5.1 million tones in Spring contrasted with 1.4 million tones in Walk 2022.
In addition, according to some analysts, Brazil is prepared to supply nearly half of Argentina’s soybean imports following the worst drought in 100 years, which decimated its fields and reduced output by half by 2023.