Soybean Insights: Market Trends and Projections
Soybean futures , May delivery have slumps by 2.5¢, reaching $12.35¼ per bushel. Concurrently, soymeal experienced a dip of $3.8 to $379.50 per short ton, while soy oil displayed resilience, surges 0.68¢ to reach 43.63¢ per pound.
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Soybean |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 12.3225 | -2.5 | 12.345 | 12.405 | 12.3 | 12.3525 |
| 24-Jul | 12.465 | -2.25 | 12.47 | 12.565 | 12.4025 | 12.455 |
| 24-Aug | 12.455 | -0.5 | 12.43 | 12.5375 | 12.375 | 12.4475 |
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Soybean Oil |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 0.4385 | 0.68 | 0.435 | 0.4385 | 0.435 | 0.4363 |
| 24-Jul | 0.445 | 0.66 | 0.4399 | 0.4476 | 0.4372 | 0.4448 |
| 24-Aug | 0.4475 | 0.69 | 0.4418 | 0.4498 | 0.4394 | 0.4473 |
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Soybean Meal |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 3.774 | -3.8 | 3.817 | 3.819 | 3.774 | 3.795 |
| 24-Jul | 3.832 | -4.4 | 3.865 | 3.9 | 3.821 | 3.832 |
| 24-Aug | 3.812 | -3.9 | 3.846 | 3.869 | 3.8 | 3.812 |
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By Abdul Hameed Team |
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Slower Than Expected: US Corn and Soybean Planting Rates Lag Behind
The pace of planting for corn and soybeans in the United States last week fell below projections, indicating a slower start to the season.
- US Corn Planting Progress
According to the latest repor the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), as of May 5th, corn planting has reached 36% of the target area. This figure is lower compared to last year’s 42% at the same date and falls short of the five-year average of 39%.
- Soybean Planting Status
Soybean planting has also shown a similar trend, with only 25% of the intended acreage sown by May 5th. This is below both last year’s figure of 30% and the five-year average of 21%.
Argentine Soybean Forecast for 2024/25 Season
Experts from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) project a promising outlook for soybean harvest in Argentina for the 2024/25 season.
- Projected Harvest Volume
Forecasts suggest a harvest of approximately 51 million tons of soybeans, marking a significant increase from the previous year’s 25 million tons.
- Acreage Expansion and Processing Expectations
Local farmers are anticipated to expand soybean acreage by nearly 8% to 17.8 million hectares. Additionally, soybean processing is expected to rise by 1 million tons, reaching a total of 40 million tons.
- Production and Export Estimates
The estimated soybean meal and oil production for the 2024/25 season are 31.2 million tons and 7.9 million tons, respectively. Exports are projected at 27 million tons for soybean meal and 5.3 million tons for soybean oil.
- Sunflower Harvest Decline
However, FAS USDA anticipates a decrease in sunflower harvest in Argentina for the upcoming season, attributed to the adverse effects of the La Niña weather phenomenon.
EU Rapeseed Harvest Outlook
In the European Union, experts foresee a slight decline in rapeseed harvest compared to the previous year due to unfavorable weather conditions.
- Forecasted Harvest Figures
The European Commission estimates a reduction in rapeseed harvest from 19.8 million tons to 19.4 million tons for the current year. Severe Flooding Hits Southern Brazil Southern Brazil, particularly the state of Rio Grande do Sul, is grappling with severe flooding following record rainfall.
- Brazilian Soybean Harvest
The second-largest soybean-producing state in Brazil is experiencing its worst flooding in over 80 years, affecting nearly half of the soybean harvest still in the fields.
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Impact of Weather Conditions in Southern Brazil |
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Aspect |
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Weather Conditions |
Record rainfall in southern Brazil, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul, resulting in flooding in over 130 cities. |
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State of emergency declared by the governor due to 13 deaths, 21 missing persons, and extensive flooding and damage. |
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Central and eastern areas of Rio Grande do Sul heavily impacted, with flooded cities, damaged roadways, and bridges. |
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Heavy rainfall expected to decrease as storms move north into neighboring Santa Catarina. |
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Rainfall Records |
In early May, several cities recorded rainfall exceeding the normal monthly average: |
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– Santa Maria: 400 mm (170% of normal) |
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– Caxias do Sul: 139% of normal |
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– Passo Fundo: 76% of normal |
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– Porto Alegre: 76% of normal |
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– Cruz Alta: 55% of normal |
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Impact on Agriculture |
Soybean, rice, and corn crops at risk of lower yields and poor seed quality due to heavy rains during harvesting. |
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Rice harvest already delayed, further delays expected. Corn production affected in similar manner. |
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Weather Conditions in Central |
South-central Brazil experiencing hot and dry weather, with temperatures 5°C above normal. |
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and Northwestern Regions |
States like Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and Minas Gerais facing temperatures of 34°C to 38°C (94°F to 101°F). |
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Hot and dry conditions persisting for 2-3 weeks, expected to continue for another two weeks or longer. |
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Impact on Corn Production |
Adverse weather affecting safrinha corn, which comprises over 75% of Brazil’s total corn production. |
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Corn pollination and grain filling affected, leading to expectations of reduced safrinha corn yields. |
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Impact on Soybean Production |
Heavy rains during harvesting in Rio Grande do Sul put the remaining soybean crop at risk of lower yields and poor quality. |
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Delayed harvesting may lead to increased risk of crop damage and losses. |
Click Here To View May 06, 2024 Report
In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a Neutral trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.8 to $12.6 per bushel.
