Commodities(B-Trams): The CBOT July corn market may test a resistance at $6.08 -$6.18 level range per bushel, as it has pierced above a lower resistance at $6.11. The consolidation within a box could ending.
While Chicago corn futures edged higher on Monday amid expectations of supply concerns, after a historic drought affects the production of the crop in the world’s third-biggest exporter Argentina.
As per the chart the bullish continuation pattern has taken shape. It will confirm when corn stands firm above $6.11. The consolidation is regard as a part of a wave C, which is capable of travelling to $6.41.
Support is at $6.04, a break below which could trigger a drop to $5.95-1/4. On the daily chart, the contract is poise to rise far above a resistance at $6.07-1/2, after many days of sideways move.
While also as per The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has boost its 2023-24 US beginning and ending stock estimates while cutting export projections and leaving production estimates unchange at a record high.
Beginning stockpiles of the 2023-24 crop year are expects to total 1.452 billion bushels (36.9 million tonnes), which is 35 million bushels higher than project in May,
while ending stocks are seen at 2.257 billion bushels, which is also 35 million bushels higher than last month’s estimates , according to the June update to the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) data.
The ending stockpile estimate for 2023-24 is higher than the 2.2 billion bushels (56.4 million tonnes) project by analysts surveyed by Fastmarkets Agriculture before the release of the report.
US corn output is expected to rise to an all-time high of 15.265 billion bushels (387.7 million tonnes) in 2023-24, which is unchange from last month’s estimate and 11.2% higher than 13.73 billion bushels projected for 2022-23.
Market participants polled by our team before the release expects that the USDA would forecast 2023-24 production at 15.256 billion bushels (387.5 million tonnes).
”Exports are lowere 50 million bushels, based on report U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, export inspection data for the month of May, and expectations of competition from Brazil in the coming months,” the report said.
US exports are project to total 1.725 billion bushels (52.7 million tonnes) in 2022-23, down 2.8% from 1.775 billion bushels project in May.
The 2023-24 export estimate was unchang from last month at 2.1 billion bushes (52.7 million tonnes). however The current uptrend is expect to as strong as the one from the July 22, 2022 low of $5.74-1/4, as a wave (C) from $7.05-1/2 may have complete.
The USDA projects left the 2023-24 production forecast at a record 1.219 billion tonnes, up from 1.151 billion tonnes in 2022/23.
The 2022-23 production estimate was increase by 530,000 tonnes.
“This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month,” the report said.
Ending stocks for 2023-24 project at 313.98 million tonnes, up from 1.1 million tonnes from the May report while 2022-23 ending stocks were seen at 297.55 million tonnes, up 140,000 tonnes.
Analysts project that the USDA would estimate global ending stocks at 313 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 297 million tonnes in 2022-23.
“Corn production is raise for Ukraine, reflecting higher area base on data report by the government,” according to the report.
Ukraine is expects to produce 24.5 million tonnes of corn in 2023-24, which is 3.5 million tonnes higher than what was estimate in the May Wasde.
The USDA reduce 2022-23 corn production projections for drought-stricken Argentina while bolstering them for neighboring Brazil.
Argentina’s corn 2022-23 output forecast was slash by 2 million tonnes to 35 million tonnes, while the department kept its 2023-24 production estimate at 54 million tonnes.
Analysts survey before the report expects the USDA to reduce the 2022-23 Argentina output estimate by 1 million tonnes from May to 36 million tonnes.
However the Brazilian corn market output for 2022-23 increase 2 million tonnes to 132 million tonnes, while the production forecasts for 2023-24 was left unchange at 129 million tonnes.