Soybean Insights: Market Trends and Projections
In the realm of soybean market futures trading, May delivery futures have slumps by 1.0¢, reaching $11.90¼ per bushel.Concurrently, soymeal experienced a dip of $1.3 to $337.70 per short ton, while soy oil displayed
resilience, surges 0.28¢ to reach 47.95¢ per pound.
Click Here To View March 27, 2024 Report
USDA Report: 2024 Planting Trends Revealed
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has just unveiled its highly anticipated 2024 Prospective Plantings report, shedding light on the upcoming agricultural landscape. Here’s a breakdown of the key insights and projections:
Shift in Crop Plantings
- Corn Plantings Decline, Soybean Acreage Surges
According to the USDA report, American farmers are gearing up to reduce corn plantings for the 2024 season. Expectations indicate a decrease to 90.036 million acres, down from 94.641 million acres planted in the previous year. Conversely, soybean plantings are set to witness a notable increase, projected to reach 86.510 million acres, compared to 83.600 million acres in 2023.
- Wheat Plantings Follow Suit
The USDA anticipates a decline in wheat plantings as well, with estimates pointing to 47.498 million acres, down from 49.575 million acres in the previous year. This reduction is chiefly attributed to a decrease in winter wheat acreage, as highlighted in the annual prospective plantings report.
- Insights from the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
In addition to the prospective plantings report, the USDA also released its quarterly grain stocks report. The findings reveal that as of March 1, 2024, U.S. stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat have all witnessed an uptick compared to the same period last year.
Detailed Analysis of USDA Projections
- Methodology and Estimates
The USDA’s acreage estimates for 2024 are primarily based on surveys conducted earlier in the month. The total projected acreage for corn, soybean, and wheat stands at 224 million acres, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year’s figure of 227.8 million acres.
- Soybean Acreage Projection
The USDA’s report forecasts soybean plantings to reach 86.5 million acres in 2024, marking a 3% increase from the previous year. However, it’s worth noting that this projection falls below both market expectations and the findings of the Kluis/SF survey.
Weekly Export Sales Report Highlights
Earlier today, the USDA released the weekly Export Sales report for the week ending March 21, 2024. Here’s a summary of export sales for corn, soybeans, and wheat during the 2023/2024 marketing year:
Soybeans |
|
|
Actual Sales (in MT) |
2023-24: 263,900 |
|
Expectations (in MT) |
2023-24: 300,000-700,000 |
|
Weekly Sales Details |
Net sales of 263,900 MT for 2023/2024 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (347,300 MT, including 321,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,400 MT), Germany (69,000 MT), Mexico (36,400 MT, including decreases of 4,900 MT), Colombia (14,000 MT), and Indonesia (12,100 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (240,200 MT). Total net sales of 120,000 MT for 2024/2025 were for unknown destinations. |
|
Weekly Export Details |
Exports of 785,600 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (464,400 MT), Mexico (109,900 MT), Japan (78,200 MT), Germany (69,000 MT), and Indonesia (24,500 MT). |
|
Comments and Performance Indicators |
Export commitments are running 18.9% behind a year-ago, compared to 18.7% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 1.720 billion bu., down 13.7% from the previous marketing year. |
Soymeal |
|
|
Actual Sales (in MT) |
2023-24: 127,300 |
|
Expectations |
2023-24: 150,000-350,000 |
|
Weekly Sales Details |
Net sales of 127,300 MT for 2023/2024 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Turkey (33,000 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (28,900 MT), Canada (14,100 MT), the Dominican Republic (12,700 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Honduras (9,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Morocco (5,900 MT), Nicaragua (2,800 MT), Belgium (1,300 MT), unknown destinations (1,000 MT), and Guatemala (500 MT). Net sales of 1,200 MT for 2024/2025 were reported for Japan (700 MT) and Sri Lanka (500 MT). |
|
Weekly Export Details |
Exports of 280,400 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (98,500 MT), Morocco (36,100 MT), Turkey (33,000 MT), Mexico (23,300 MT), and Guatemala (19,300 MT). |
|
Comments and Performance Indicators |
Export commitments are 16.3% ahead of a year-ago, compared to 20.1% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2022-23 will increase 7.7% from the previous marketing year in 2023-24. |
Soyoil |
|
|
Actual Sales (in MT) |
2023-24: 6,000 |
|
Expectations |
2023-24: (5,000)-10,000 |
|
Weekly Sales Details |
Net sales of 6,000 MT for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Colombia (2,500 MT), unknown destinations (2,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,500 MT), and Mexico (1,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (1,100 MT). |
|
Weekly Export Details |
Exports of 7,700 MT were down 38 percent from the previous week, but up 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Colombia (3,500 MT), Mexico (2,300 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,500 MT). |
|
Comments and Performance Indicators |
Export commitments are running 5.8% ahead of a year-ago, compared to in-line with last week. USDA projects exports will decrease 7.4% in 2023-24 |
Emerging Trends in EU Oilseed Processing
- Growth Forecast for 2024/25 MY
Looking beyond U.S. borders, the EU’s oilseed processing sector is poised for growth in the 2024/25 marketing year. Forecasts suggest a 2% increase in processing volume, reaching approximately 48.4 million tons. This uptick is driven by expectations of higher sunflower and soybean market futures production, projected to rise by nearly 5% and 11%, respectively.
- Factors Driving Processing Volume
The surge in processing volumes can be attributed to several factors, including anticipated increases in sunflower and soybean production within the EU. Additionally, the continued import of oilseeds at levels comparable to the previous season is expected to bolster processing activities.
- Outlook for Rapeseed Processing
While sunflower and soybean processing are on an upward trajectory, rapeseed processing in EU countries is expected to remain stagnant at around 24 million tons. This static outlook is linked to a potential decline in gross harvest due to adverse factors affecting rapeseed production.
Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate
Agroconsult, a leading consultancy firm, has revised its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop, projecting a potential harvest of approximately 156.5 million tons for this season. This updated forecast marks an increase from the previous estimate of 152.2 million tons provided earlier in January.
- Factors Driving Brazilian Soybean Production Increase
Agroconsult attributes the anticipated rise in soybean production to the expansion of cultivation areas, with an expected increase to 46.4 million hectares, reflecting a growth of 1.2 million hectares annually. However, challenges posed by unpredictable weather conditions have impacted the current harvest, making it one of the most technically demanding seasons, as noted by Agroconsult President Andre Pessoa.
Revised Projections for Argentina’s Corn and Sunflower Crops
In Argentina, recent abundant rainfall across the central and southern regions has led to revised projections for corn and sunflower crops. According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE), the corn harvest progress has been modest, with only a 0.5 percentage point increase to 3.7% of the projected 7.2 million hectares.
- Challenges Faced by Argentina’s Corn Production
A heatwave in February has resulted in a downward revision of corn production projections by 2.5 million tonnes, bringing the updated estimate to 54 million tonnes. Additionally, fluctuating conditions have impacted crop ratings, with good-to-excellent areas declining while areas considered bad or dry have increased.
- Sunflower Harvest Progress and Challenges
Sunflower harvest in Argentina has seen a notable advancement, with 59.2% completion for the 2023/24 cycle. However, this progress represents a delay compared to the previous year, attributed to adverse weather conditions that affected yields, particularly in Buenos Aires and La Pampa regions.
| Crop | Progress | Production Projection | Conditions |
| Corn | 3.7% harvested | 54 million tonnes (-2.5) | Good-to-excellent: 24% (-1%)<br> Bad: 21% (+4%)<br> Dry: 21% (-2%)<br> Excessive moisture: 2% (+1%) |
| Sunflower | 59.2% harvested | 3.6 million tonnes (-0.2) | Good-to-excellent: 25% (-5%)<br> Bad: 29% (+8%)<br> Dry: 17% (-7%)<br> Excessive moisture: 28% (+6%) |
| Soybean | N/A | 52.5 million tonnes | Good-to-excellent: 31% (+1%)<br> Bad: 16% (steady)<br> Dry: 21% (-2%)<br> Excessive moisture: 1% |
- Impact on Sunflower Production
The challenges faced by sunflower crops have led to a reduction in the projected output, with BAGE revising it down to 3.6 million tonnes. Factors such as windstorms, hail, and end-of-cycle diseases contribute to the uncertainty surrounding production forecasts.
Canadian Canola Processing and Export Trends
In Canada, oil extraction plants processed approximately 898 thousand tons of canola last month, according to analysts at the Hamburg agency OilWorld. Despite a slight decrease from January levels, the current figure reflects a significant increase compared to February 2023, highlighting robust processing activities.
Changes in Canadian Canola Exports
However, the current season witnesses a decline in Canadian canola exports, with shipments totaling 1.1 million tons as of March 17, down from 1.9 million tons during the same period last year. This decrease underscores evolving market dynamics and trade patterns in the global oilseed market.
In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a neutral trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.3 to $12.3 per bushel.
