Soybean Market Futures & Outlook on US Drought Conditions | APRIL 03, 2024

Exploring Global Soybean Trends and Agricultural Outlook

In the realm of soybean market futures, May delivery have surges by 8.25¢, reaching $11.83¼ per bushel. Concurrently, soymeal experienced a Up of $1.7 to $330.00 per short ton, while soy oil displayed resilience, surges 0.25¢ to reach 48.86¢ per pound.

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Soybean exports, a crucial indicator of the global agricultural market, have witnessed notable fluctuations in recent weeks. Let’s delve into the latest statistics and projections to gain insights into the dynamics shaping the industry.

• Understanding Recent Export Figures

The USDA FGIS reported a significant decline in soybean exports for the week ending March 28, with figures standing at 414,484 tons. This marks a notable decrease from the previous week’s 785,000 tonnes and the 504,000 tonnes reported during the same period last year. Notably, soybean supplies are currently trailing last year’s pace by 18.7%, with total exports amounting to 36.98 million tons.

• Insights into US Soybean Crush Volume

In February, the US witnessed a slightly disappointing soybean crush volume of 194 million bushels, according to data released by the USDA. However, sales at the halfway mark of the marketing year showed a promising increase of 5.5% compared to the previous year, totaling 1.170 billion bushels. Despite a decline in soybean oil usage for biofuel production in January, year-to-date production rates remain 15% higher than the previous year.

Exploring EU Oilseed Harvest Projections

Analysts forecast a harvest of approximately 31.9 million tons for major oilseed crops in EU countries this year. However, the report highlights a downward revision in rapeseed production estimates, primarily attributed to lower oilseed harvest figures in France. The current forecast stands 9% lower than last year’s production, with expectations of increased imports of Australian and Ukrainian rapeseed.

• EU Oil Import Trends and Forecasts

The European Union has witnessed a slight uptick in oil imports during the current season, with imports totaling about 5.23 million tons of vegetable oils from July 1, 2023, to March 27, 2024. Notably, sunflower oil imports surged by 41%, soybean by 12%, and rapeseed by 8%, while palm oil imports experienced a decline of 18%. Importantly, Ukraine emerged as a key supplier of soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower oil to the EU market.

Sunflower Oil Production Surges in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, known for its vast landscapes and agricultural prowess, has witnessed a significant surge in sunflower oil production. In the first two months of 2024, oil extraction enterprises in the country have collectively produced approximately 100 thousand tons of vegetable oil. This marks a remarkable 10% increase compared to the same period last year.

• Kazakhstan Rising Production Volumes

The production of unrefined sunflower oil, a staple in many households, has seen a substantial uptick of 30%, totaling over 89 thousand tons during January and February of 2024. Similarly, the production of refined sunflower oil has surged by 32%, reaching a noteworthy figure of over 23 thousand tons during the same period.

• Economic Implications

The surge in sunflower oil production in Kazakhstan has not only benefited the country’s population through reduced costs of this essential commodity but has also had a positive ripple effect on related industries. Sectors such as poultry and livestock farming, which heavily rely on oil and high-protein feed derived from seed processing, have experienced a boost in their economic activities. The National Association of Processors Oilseeds has commented on this trend, highlighting its favorable impact on both the populace and the economy.

India’s Growing Appetite for Vegetable Oils

Meanwhile, across the Indian subcontinent, the demand for vegetable oils has been on the rise. In March, India recorded its highest volume of vegetable oil purchases in the last six months, amounting to a staggering 1.149 million tons, indicating an 18.7% increase compared to the preceding month. Market experts, including Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, attribute this surge in imports to the highly competitive prices of sunflower oil. It is anticipated that the import growth trajectory will continue into the coming months, further fueled by the favorable pricing dynamics.

Global Oil Market Insights

Insights from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shed light on the changing landscape of drought conditions across the United States. Following a wet winter and early spring, the prevalence of drought has decreased to approximately 18% by the end of March, marking the lowest level since May 2020. Notably, regions such as New Mexico and Iowa continue to grapple with severe drought conditions, albeit witnessing some alleviation due to recent rainfall patterns.

• Outlook on Drought Conditions

Looking ahead, NOAA forecasts a mixed outlook for drought conditions in various regions of the United States. While areas across the northern Rockies and western Great Lakes are expected to experience persistent drought, regions such as Arizona and central Texas anticipate improvement in drought conditions. Similarly, the Central Plains and western Corn Belt are poised to witness alleviation in drought, with wetter-than-normal conditions forecasted.

In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a Neutral  trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.3 to $12.3 per bushel.