Soybean Market Futures & Updates | APRIL 02, 2024

Soybean Insights: Market Trends and Projections

In the realm of soybean market futures, May delivery futures have slumps by 11.75¢, reaching $11.74¼ per bushel. Concurrently, soymeal experienced a dip of $5.1 to $328.30 per short ton, while soy oil displayed resilience, surges 0.36¢ to reach 48.60¢ per pound.

Click Here To View March 25, 2024 Report

Soybean Harvest Updates in Brazil and the USA

Soybean harvesting in Brazil reached 74% of the total area by March 28, slightly lower compared to the previous year’s 76%. However, the pace of harvesting has been surpassing last year’s rate in recent times. Concurrently, corn harvesting from the first harvest phase covered 43% of the area, with the second harvest sown across 96.8% of the area.

• Brazilian Soybean Harvest and Production Estimates

Analyst Luis Fernando Gutierrez Roque projects Brazil’s soybean harvest at 148.6 million tons, notably below initial forecasts of 160 million tons. In February and March, revised their forecast for soybean production in Brazil for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) from 152.2 to 156.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the USDA’s estimation stands at 155 million tons.

• Soybean Outlook in the USA

The USDA’s quarterly reports indicate an increase in soybean planting area in the USA for 2024, expected to rise from 83.6 to 86.51 million acres compared to the previous year. Stock levels as of March 1 also saw an uptick, climbing from 45.86 to 50.2 million tons.

Impact on Soybean Prices

Despite the increased planting area, soybean exports from the USA in the ongoing season totaled only 37 million tons, marking an 18.7% decline from the previous year. This decline has exerted pressure on prices. In February, soybean processing in the USA decreased by 0.6% compared to January, falling short of analysts’ expectations.

Trends in Exports and Assessments

Soybean inspections for export witnessed a decline to 414,484 metric tons in the week ending March 28, down from 785,116 tons the previous week and 503,900 tons in the same week last year. Conversely, corn inspections increased to 1.43 million tons from 1.26 million the prior week and surpassed the 1.1 million tons examined at the same period last year. Wheat assessments rose to 498,989 tons from 432,764 tons the week prior and 168,543 tons in the corresponding week of 2023.

• Long-Term Inspections and Export Trends

Since the beginning of the marketing year on Sept. 1, corn inspections for exports have totaled 25.9 million metric tons, up from 19.4 million tons during the same period a year earlier, as reported by the agency. Soybean inspections during the same period now stand at 37 million tons, a decrease from the 45.5 million tons assessed during the previous year.

Cargill’s Expansion Plans in Australia

Cargill announced its intention to construct a canola processing plant in Kwinana, Australia, with an estimated cost of about $600 million. The company’s managing director in Australia, Zsolt Kocha, affirmed the endeavor, subject to necessary approvals and collaboration with the state government. The plant aims to cater to both domestic and export markets, emphasizing canola products such as oil and meal, including deliveries targeted at the biofuel sector.

Global Sunseed Production and Projections

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts global sunseed production in the 2024/25 season to reach approximately 58.5 million tons. Experts anticipate a 1% increase in oilseed harvest to 57.9 million tons. Despite a 2% reduction in global acreage due to low export prices, the growth is expected to stem from improved crop yields.

Regional Projections and Leading Producers

Russia is poised to lead sunseed production in the forthcoming marketing year, targeting 17.4 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year’s 17.6 million tons. Following suit, Ukraine aims for 16.2 million tons, and EU countries project 10.5 million tons. Other prominent producers include Argentina, China, Turkey, Kazakhstan, and the USA, with varying production estimates for the upcoming season.

Increased Sunflower Oil Purchases in India

India recorded a surge in vegetable oil purchases in March, reaching the highest volume in six months at 1.149 million tons, up by 18.7% compared to February. Notably, sunflower oil imports reached 448 thousand tons during this period, marking the second-highest volume on record. Conversely, palm oil imports declined to a yearly low of 481 thousand tons, while soybean oil imports surged by 27% to 220 thousand tons.

Decline in Russian Grain Exports

Grain exports from Russia witnessed a downturn in March, totaling approximately 5.7 million tons, reflecting a 14.6% decrease from March 2023 levels. Wheat shipments decreased by 15.7%, amounting to 4.517 million tons, while corn exports plummeted by 42% to 574 thousand tons. In contrast, barley exports nearly doubled to 612 thousand tons.

Future Export Potential and Market Dynamics

With a remaining export potential of 67 million tons for major grain types, it’s projected that 15.6 million tons could be shipped in the last three months of the season, with wheat accounting for 12.8 million tons. However, these estimates fall short of current shipment volumes. Notably, Russian wheat exports diversified, reaching 28 countries in March, with Egypt emerging as the primary buyer, purchasing 1.196 million tons during the period.