Soybean Insights: Market Trends and Projections
Soybean trading, May delivery futures have slumps by 3.5¢, reaching $11.81¼ per bushel. Concurrently, soymeal experienced a Up of $2.9 to $336.00 per short ton, while soy oil displayed resilience, slumps 0.99¢ to reach 47.90¢ per pound.
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Soybean |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 11.815 | -3.5 | 11.8775 | 11.9325 | 11.805 | 11.815 |
| 24-Jul | 11.9425 | -2.5 | 11.985 | 12.0425 | 11.935 | 11.9425 |
| 24-Aug | 11.9275 | -2 | 11.9675 | 12.015 | 11.915 | 11.9275 |
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Soybean Oil |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 0.479 | -0.99 | 0.4905 | 0.4913 | 0.4767 | 0.479 |
| 24-Jul | 0.4845 | -0.94 | 0.4954 | 0.4962 | 0.4824 | 0.4845 |
| 24-Aug | 0.4858 | -0.88 | 0.496 | 0.4965 | 0.4837 | 0.4858 |
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Soybean Meal |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 3.36 | 2.9 | 3.331 | 3.383 | 3.323 | 3.36 |
| 24-Jul | 3.391 | 2.9 | 3.362 | 3.412 | 3.351 | 3.391 |
| 24-Aug | 3.397 | 3.1 | 3.366 | 3.413 | 3.354 | 3.397 |
Click Here To View April 05, 2024 Report
Rising Costs of Soybean Production: Analyzing the Impact on Agricultural Economics
The cost of soybean production is on the rise this season, with an increase of more than 8% projected, reaching up to 46 thousand rubles per hectare.Experts note a notable shift in the cost structure of soybean production, particularly emphasizing the increasing share of costs attributed to seeds. This rise is projected from 11% to 12% of the total cost.
- Factors Driving Cost Increases
Labor Costs
Labor costs are expected to rise by 6% during this reporting period, contributing to the overall increase in production expenses.
Mineral Fertilizers
Costs associated with mineral fertilizers are forecasted to increase by 4%, adding to the financial burden on soybean producers.
Plant Protection Products
The expenses related to plant protection products are anticipated to surge by 7.5%, further impacting the profitability of soybean cultivation.
Petroleum Products
With an 11% increase in petroleum product costs, farmers are facing additional challenges in managing their operational expenses.
Organic Fertilizers
The prices of organic fertilizers are expected to soar by 26%, posing significant financial constraints on soybean growers.
Seeds and Planting Material
Significant cost increases of 17% for seeds and planting material are projected, adding to the overall expenditure for soybean cultivation.
USDA’s Weekly Grain Export Inspections Week Ended April 4, 2024
| USDA’s Weekly Grain Export Inspections | |
| Week Ended April 4, 2024 | |
| Corn | |
| Actual (MT) | 1,420,023 |
| Expectations (MT) | 1,000,000-1,400,000 |
| Comments | Export inspections are down 51,859 MT from last week’s tally. Inspections are running 35.2% ahead of a year ago, compared to 33.5% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 2.100 billion bu., 26.4% above the previous marketing year. |
| Wheat | |
| Actual (MT) | 497,534 |
| Expectations (MT) | 300,000-500,000 |
| Comments | Export inspections are down 71,613 MT from the previous week’s figure. Shipments are running 11.0% behind a year-ago, compared to 12.3% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 710 million bu., down 6.5% from the previous marketing year. |
| Soybeans | |
| Actual (MT) | 484,328 |
| Expectations (MT) | 350,000-700,000 |
| Comments | Export inspections are down 63,023 MT from last week’s tally. Inspections are running 18.5% behind a year ago, compared to 18.7% behind last week. USDA’s 2023-24 export forecast of 1.720 billion bu., which is 13.7% below 2022-23. |
Geopolitical Developments Impacting Energy Markets
The energy markets are experiencing a notable shift with the potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Mike Castle, a market intelligence fertilizer analyst at StoneX, highlights significant developments such as Israel’s withdrawal of troops from the Gaza strip and fresh ceasefire talks held in Egypt. These factors, coupled with the recent uptrend in crude oil prices, underscore a dynamic landscape that demands close monitoring.
Australian Crop Outlook: Navigating Drought Challenges
In the upcoming 2024/25 season, Australian farmers are poised to make strategic adjustments in response to anticipated drought conditions in the western region of the country. While canola acreage is expected to decline due to the impact of drought, farmers are looking to bolster plantings of key grains like wheat and barley. Favorable weather forecasts in crucial growing regions, coupled with active demand from markets like the PRC, are driving these strategic shifts.
FAO’s Revised Projections for Global Cereal Production
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has revised its forecast for world cereal production in 2023/24, projecting a 1.1 percent increase compared to the previous year. This upward revision is attributed to adjustments in corn and wheat production estimates, supported by larger harvests in key producing regions. Additionally, the outlook for rice production reflects a record harvest driven by favorable conditions across various continents.
Canola Futures Amidst Market Dynamics
Intercontinental Exchange canola futures have been navigating through a dynamic landscape, influenced by various market factors. While facing pressure from declines in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, canola futures have found support amidst concerns over dryness in key producing regions. Despite moderate declines in global crude oil prices, the market remains vigilant, with analysts highlighting the importance of monitoring supply-demand dynamics.
Key Developments Across North America and Beyond
- Solar Eclipse Alert: A narrow band of North America is set to witness a total solar eclipse, urging observers to prioritize safety measures.
- Middle East Ceasefire Talks: Negotiations between Hamas and Israel continue in Cairo, albeit with limited progress reported.
- Allegations and Denials in Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Russia accuses Ukraine of drone attacks on a nuclear power station, while Ukraine denies involvement.
- Retail Sales Report: Statistics Canada releases retail sales data, indicating positive growth trends in various commodity classes.
In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a Neutral trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.3 to $12.3 per bushel.
