Soybean Insights: Market Trends and Projections us weekly
In the realm of soybean trading, May delivery futures have slumps by 15.25¢, reaching $11.73¼ per bushel. Concurrently, soymeal experienced a dip of $5.9 to $338.50 per short ton, while soy oil displayed resilience, slumps 0.42¢ to reach 45.47¢ per pound.
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Soybean |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 11.5825 | -15.75 | 11.7325 | 11.76 | 11.555 | 11.5825 |
| 24-Jul | 11.72 | -14.75 | 11.8525 | 11.885 | 11.69 | 11.72 |
| 24-Aug | 11.715 | -13 | 11.8425 | 11.8575 | 11.68 | 11.715 |
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Soybean Oil |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 0.4547 | -0.42 | 0.459 | 0.4632 | 0.4533 | 0.4547 |
| 24-Jul | 0.4601 | -0.44 | 0.4647 | 0.4687 | 0.4588 | 0.4601 |
| 24-Aug | 0.4622 | -0.42 | 0.4668 | 0.4701 | 0.4611 | 0.4622 |
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Soybean Meal |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 3.385 | -5.9 | 3.439 | 3.446 | 3.366 | 3.385 |
| 24-Jul | 3.396 | -4.5 | 3.432 | 3.439 | 3.378 | 3.396 |
| 24-Aug | 3.402 | -3.9 | 3.431 | 3.438 | 3.381 | 3.402 |
Click Here To View April 09, 2024 Report
USDA March 28 Report Reveals Surprising Trends in 2024 Crop Prospects
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released its March 28 Prospective Plantings report, shedding light on the upcoming 2024 crop season. This report, accompanied by favorable weather conditions across key agricultural regions, and with commodity prices experiencing a downturn compared to previous years, brings several noteworthy insights.
- Positive Trends in US Crop Planting Intentions
According to the USDA report, farmers in the United States are planning to make significant adjustments in their planting intentions for 2024. The key highlights include: us weekly
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Global Soybean Market Overview |
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| Aspect | Figures/Estimates | Change from Previous Report |
| US Soybean Planting (2024) | 86.5 million acres | 3% |
| US Quarterly Soybean Stocks (as of March 1) | 1.85 billion bushels | 9% |
| Brazilian Soybean Crop (2023/24) | 41.4% of projected production traded | Increase from previous report |
| Total Soybeans Traded in Brazil (2023/24) | 61.571 million tons | Increase from previous report |
| Advance Sales for 2024/25 Crop (Brazil) | 3.1% of hypothetical minimum output | Decrease from previous year |
- Corn Acreage Projection And Soybean Acreage Expansion
Farmers intend to reduce corn planting by 5% compared to 2023, with an estimated 90 million acres earmarked for corn cultivation in 2024. Contrary to the reduction in corn planting, soybean acreage is expected to increase by 3%, reaching 86.5 million acres in 2024.
| USDA’s Weekly Grain Export Inspections | |
| Week Ended April 11, 2024 | |
| Corn | |
| Actual (MT) | 1,331,683 |
| Expectations (MT) | 1,200,000-1,500,000 |
| Comments | Export inspections are down 111,133 MT from last week’s tally. Inspections are running 33.7% ahead of a year ago, compared to 35.2% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 2.100 billion bu., 26.4% above the previous marketing year. |
| Soybeans | |
| Actual (MT) | 432,905 |
| Expectations (MT) | 375,000-600,000 |
| Comments | Export inspections are down 58,967 MT from last week’s tally. Inspections are running 18.5% behind a year ago, compared to 18.5% behind last week. USDA’s 2023-24 export forecast of 1.700 billion bu., which is 14.7% below 2022-23. |
Soybean Landscape in Brazil’s Mato Grosso do Sul
Moving beyond the borders of the United States, the soybean landscape in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, presents a mixed scenario:
- Harvest Progress
Soybean harvesting in Mato Grosso do Sul has reached 94%, with significant variations between regions. While the southern part boasts a harvest completion rate of 96.5%, the northern part lags behind at 83%.
- Yield Adjustments
Initial yield estimates of 54 sacks per hectare have been revised downwards to 50.5 sacks per hectare, representing a 19% reduction compared to the previous season.
- Production Challenges
Various factors, including late planting and irregular rainfall, have contributed to variable plant development and lower yields. Additionally, replanting due to poor emergence further impacted overall production.
Outlook for Ukrainian Oilseed Production
- Sunflower and Rapeseed Projections
Sunflower production in the upcoming agricultural year is estimated at 12 million tons, slightly below the previous season’s yield. Similarly, rapeseed harvests are expected to decrease by 4.8%, totaling 4.28 million tons. us weekly
- Soybean Growth Potential
Soybean harvests are anticipated to increase by 4.2% to 5 million tons, driven by expanded cultivation areas and favorable profit margins. Despite global competition, soybeans remain a lucrative option for Ukrainian farmers.
Global Biodiesel Production Set to Soar in 2024: Experts Predict Record Output
The upcoming year may witness a significant surge in global biodiesel production. Projections suggest that eco-fuel output in the current period is poised to escalate by approximately 3.7-3.8 million tons, reaching an unprecedented 62.5 million tons.
- Higher Blending Mandates Driving Growth in Key Oilseed Markets
Industry analysts anticipate that the uptick in biodiesel production will be fueled by elevated
blending mandates in pivotal oilseed and vegetable oil-producing nations, notably the United States,
Brazil, and Indonesia. These mandates are expected to bolster demand and consequently contribute to the surge in production figures.
Australian Canola Production Forecast
- Production Expectations
Canola production is forecasted to reach 6.5 million tonnes, marking a 14% increase from the previous year and ranking as the third-largest crop on record.
- Export Surge
February exports surged by 80% compared to January figures, with Japan, Germany, and Mexico emerging as significant markets.
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Canola Market Projections (2024-25) |
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| Aspect | Figures/Estimates | Change from Previous Year |
| Planted Area (2024-25) | 3.8 million hectares | Increase from 3.5 million hectares |
| Canola Exports | 5.1 million tonnes | Up 16% from 4.4 million tonnes |
| Crush Volume | 1.2 million tonnes | Increase of 100,000 tonnes |
| Canola Oil Exports | 230,000 tonnes | Up 21% from previous year |
| Canola Meal Production | 696,000 tonnes | Increase from est. 638,000 tonnes |
| Canola Oil Production | 495,000 tonnes | 9% increase from previous year |
- Year-on-Year Growth
The February 2024 export figures show substantial growth compared to the previous year, signaling a promising trajectory for Australian canola exports. us weekly
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CANOLA |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Tonnes |
|
Bangladesh |
6995 |
6543 |
51689 |
65227 |
|
Belgium |
0 |
58478 |
66000 |
124478 |
|
Brazil |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
Canada |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
France |
98123 |
0 |
53487 |
151610 |
|
Germany |
125134 |
65451 |
125412 |
315998 |
|
Greece |
31743 |
0 |
69415 |
101158 |
|
Japan |
97696 |
61013 |
163734 |
322443 |
|
Kuwait |
0 |
21 |
0 |
21 |
|
Malaysia |
3778 |
4345 |
2937 |
11061 |
|
Mexico |
80002 |
0 |
85586 |
165588 |
|
Nepal |
2637 |
4480 |
7532 |
14649 |
|
Netherlands |
0 |
99674 |
24512 |
124186 |
|
New Zealand |
1463 |
0 |
0 |
1463 |
|
Pakistan |
80288 |
79006 |
50999 |
210293 |
|
Philippines |
0 |
10 |
0 |
10 |
|
South Africa |
44 |
0 |
142 |
186 |
|
South Korea |
206 |
0 |
307 |
513 |
|
UAE |
35499 |
45691 |
61116 |
142306 |
|
TOTAL |
563611 |
424712 |
762869 |
1751192 |
In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a Neutral trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.3 to $12.3 per bushel.
