US Weekly Soybean Projections & Futures | April 15, 2024

US Soybean Futures

Soybean Insights: Market Trends and Projections us weekly

In the realm of soybean trading, May delivery futures have slumps by 15.25¢, reaching $11.73¼ per bushel. Concurrently, soymeal experienced a dip of $5.9 to $338.50 per short ton, while soy oil displayed resilience, slumps 0.42¢ to reach 45.47¢ per pound.

Soybean

Contract Last Change Open High Low Close
24-May 11.5825 -15.75 11.7325 11.76 11.555 11.5825
24-Jul 11.72 -14.75 11.8525 11.885 11.69 11.72
24-Aug 11.715 -13 11.8425 11.8575 11.68 11.715

Soybean Oil

Contract Last Change Open High Low Close
24-May 0.4547 -0.42 0.459 0.4632 0.4533 0.4547
24-Jul 0.4601 -0.44 0.4647 0.4687 0.4588 0.4601
24-Aug 0.4622 -0.42 0.4668 0.4701 0.4611 0.4622

Soybean Meal

Contract Last Change Open High Low Close
24-May 3.385 -5.9 3.439 3.446 3.366 3.385
24-Jul 3.396 -4.5 3.432 3.439 3.378 3.396
24-Aug 3.402 -3.9 3.431 3.438 3.381 3.402

 

Click Here To View April  09, 2024 Report

USDA March 28 Report Reveals Surprising Trends in 2024 Crop Prospects

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released its March 28 Prospective Plantings report, shedding light on the upcoming 2024 crop season. This report, accompanied by favorable weather conditions across key agricultural regions, and with commodity prices experiencing a downturn compared to previous years, brings several noteworthy insights.

  • Positive Trends in US Crop Planting Intentions

According to the USDA report, farmers in the United States are planning to make significant adjustments in their planting intentions for 2024. The key highlights include: us weekly

Global Soybean Market Overview

Aspect Figures/Estimates Change from Previous Report
US Soybean Planting (2024) 86.5 million acres 3%
US Quarterly Soybean Stocks (as of March 1) 1.85 billion bushels 9%
Brazilian Soybean Crop (2023/24) 41.4% of projected production traded Increase from previous report
Total Soybeans Traded in Brazil (2023/24) 61.571 million tons Increase from previous report
Advance Sales for 2024/25 Crop (Brazil) 3.1% of hypothetical minimum output Decrease from previous year
  • Corn Acreage Projection And Soybean Acreage Expansion

Farmers intend to reduce corn planting by 5% compared to 2023, with an estimated 90 million acres earmarked for corn cultivation in 2024. Contrary to the reduction in corn planting, soybean acreage is expected to increase by 3%, reaching 86.5 million acres in 2024.

USDA’s Weekly Grain Export Inspections
                                             Week Ended April 11, 2024             
Corn
Actual (MT) 1,331,683
Expectations (MT) 1,200,000-1,500,000
Comments Export inspections are down 111,133 MT from last week’s tally. Inspections are running 33.7% ahead of a year ago, compared to 35.2% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 2.100 billion bu., 26.4% above the previous marketing year.
Soybeans
Actual (MT) 432,905
Expectations (MT) 375,000-600,000
Comments Export inspections are down 58,967 MT from last week’s tally. Inspections are running 18.5% behind a year ago, compared to 18.5% behind last week. USDA’s 2023-24 export forecast of 1.700 billion bu., which is 14.7% below 2022-23.

 Soybean Landscape in Brazil’s Mato Grosso do Sul

Moving beyond the borders of the United States, the soybean landscape in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, presents a mixed scenario:

  • Harvest Progress

Soybean harvesting in Mato Grosso do Sul has reached 94%, with significant variations between regions. While the southern part boasts a harvest completion rate of 96.5%, the northern part lags behind at 83%.

  • Yield Adjustments

Initial yield estimates of 54 sacks per hectare have been revised downwards to 50.5 sacks per hectare, representing a 19% reduction compared to the previous season.

  • Production Challenges

Various factors, including late planting and irregular rainfall, have contributed to variable plant development and lower yields. Additionally, replanting due to poor emergence further impacted overall production.

Outlook for Ukrainian Oilseed Production

  • Sunflower and Rapeseed Projections

Sunflower production in the upcoming agricultural year is estimated at 12 million tons, slightly below the previous season’s yield. Similarly, rapeseed harvests are expected to decrease by 4.8%, totaling 4.28 million tons. us weekly

  • Soybean Growth Potential

Soybean harvests are anticipated to increase by 4.2% to 5 million tons, driven by expanded cultivation areas and favorable profit margins. Despite global competition, soybeans remain a lucrative option for Ukrainian farmers.

Global Biodiesel Production Set to Soar in 2024: Experts Predict Record Output

The upcoming year may witness a significant surge in global biodiesel production. Projections suggest that eco-fuel output in the current period is poised to escalate by approximately 3.7-3.8 million tons, reaching an unprecedented 62.5 million tons.

  •  Higher Blending Mandates Driving Growth in Key Oilseed Markets

Industry analysts anticipate that the uptick in biodiesel production will be fueled by elevated
blending mandates in pivotal oilseed and vegetable oil-producing nations, notably the United States,
Brazil, and Indonesia. These mandates are expected to bolster demand and consequently contribute to the surge in production figures.

Australian Canola Production Forecast

  • Production Expectations

Canola production is forecasted to reach 6.5 million tonnes, marking a 14% increase from the previous year and ranking as the third-largest crop on record.

  • Export Surge

February exports surged by 80% compared to January figures, with Japan, Germany, and Mexico emerging as significant markets.

Canola Market Projections (2024-25)

Aspect Figures/Estimates Change from Previous Year
Planted Area (2024-25) 3.8 million hectares Increase from 3.5 million hectares
Canola Exports 5.1 million tonnes Up 16% from 4.4 million tonnes
Crush Volume 1.2 million tonnes Increase of 100,000 tonnes
Canola Oil Exports 230,000 tonnes Up 21% from previous year
Canola Meal Production 696,000 tonnes Increase from est. 638,000 tonnes
Canola Oil Production 495,000 tonnes 9% increase from previous year
  • Year-on-Year Growth

The February 2024 export figures show substantial growth compared to the previous year, signaling a promising trajectory for Australian canola exports. us weekly

CANOLA

Dec

Jan

Feb

Tonnes

Bangladesh

6995

6543

51689

65227

Belgium

0

58478

66000

124478

Brazil

1

0

0

1

Canada

0

0

1

1

France

98123

0

53487

151610

Germany

125134

65451

125412

315998

Greece

31743

0

69415

101158

Japan

97696

61013

163734

322443

Kuwait

0

21

0

21

Malaysia

3778

4345

2937

11061

Mexico

80002

0

85586

165588

Nepal

2637

4480

7532

14649

Netherlands

0

99674

24512

124186

New Zealand

1463

0

0

1463

Pakistan

80288

79006

50999

210293

Philippines

0

10

0

10

South Africa

44

0

142

186

South Korea

206

0

307

513

UAE

35499

45691

61116

142306

TOTAL

563611

424712

762869

1751192

 

In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a Neutral  trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.3 to $12.3 per bushel.