Soybean Insights: Market Trends and Projections
Today US soybean futures, May delivery futures have slumps by 15.25¢, reaching $11.37¼ per bushel. Concurrently, soymeal experienced a dip of $0.7 to $338.40 per short ton, while soy oil displayed resilience, slumps 0.88¢ to reach 44.29¢ per pound.
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Soybean |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 11.3425 | -15.25 | 11.49 | 11.4975 | 11.33 | 11.3725 |
| 24-Jul | 11.49 | -15.25 | 11.64 | 11.645 | 11.4775 | 11.5125 |
| 24-Aug | 11.5125 | -14.5 | 11.645 | 11.6625 | 11.5 | 11.5325 |
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Soybean Oil |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 0.4412 | -0.88 | 0.4508 | 0.4527 | 0.4379 | 0.4429 |
| 24-Jul | 0.4466 | -0.9 | 0.4562 | 0.4583 | 0.4436 | 0.4484 |
| 24-Aug | 0.4488 | -0.86 | 0.4581 | 0.46 | 0.4459 | 0.4507 |
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Soybean Meal |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 3.38 | -0.7 | 3.387 | 3.401 | 3.362 | 3.384 |
| 24-Jul | 3.374 | -2.4 | 3.396 | 3.398 | 3.364 | 3.378 |
| 24-Aug | 3.378 | -2.8 | 3.401 | 3.401 | 3.369 | 3.381 |
Click Here To View April 17, 2024 Report
Global Soybean Processing on the Upswing
A notable increase in global soybean processing during the first quarter of 2024. Compared to the same period last year, soybean processing volume surged by 8%, reaching 76.08 million tons.
During this period, soybean oil production saw a significant uptick, rising by 1.1 million tons to 14.4 million tons, while soybean meal production increased by 4.4 million tons, reaching 59.7 million tons. Despite higher-than-expected consumption of soybean meal, inventories of the product also experienced a rise. Moreover, a decline in palm oil exports has spurred heightened demand for alternative edible oils, particularly soybean oil.
USDA Export Sales Report
The latest weekly Export Sales report released by the USDA reflects trends in soybean export sales for the 2023/2024 marketing year. Sales figures for the week ending April 11 remained within expected ranges:
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Soybeans |
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Actual Sales (in MT) |
2023-24: 485,800 |
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Expectations (in MT) |
2023-24: 300,000-650,000 |
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Weekly Sales Details |
Net sales of 485,800 MT for 2023/2024 were up 59 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (131,000 MT, including 121,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT), Mexico (84,500 MT, including decreases of 3,700 MT), Indonesia (77,500 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,000 MT), unknown destinations (59,500 MT), and Germany (57,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Venezuela (27,300 MT). Net sales of 263,200 MT for 2024/2025 were reported for unknown destinations (254,000 MT), Taiwan (9,000 MT), and Japan (200 MT). |
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Weekly Export Details |
Exports of 481,000 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4- week average. The destinations were primarily to China (196,000 MT), Indonesia (97,100 MT), Germany (57,500 MT), Egypt (55,000 MT), and Mexico (21,400 MT). |
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Comments and Performance Indicators |
Export commitments are running 17.6% behind a year-ago, compared to 18.5% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 1.700 billion bu., down 14.7% from the previous marketing year. |
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Soymeal |
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Actual Sales (in MT) |
2023-24: 129,800 |
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Expectations |
2023-24: 100,000-300,000 |
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Weekly Sales Details |
Net sales of 129,800 MT for 2023/2024 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (64,600 MT, including decreases of 15,600 MT), Ireland (19,500 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (17,000 MT), Ecuador (10,900 MT), and Canada (10,500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (21,900 MT), Colombia (10,500 MT), Nicaragua (4,200 MT), Morocco (2,400 MT), and Belgium (2,000 MT). Total net sales of 1,000 MT for 2024/2025 were for Canada. |
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Weekly Export Details |
Exports of 349,800 MT were up 25 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (113,400 MT), Colombia (53,000 MT, including 5,700 MT – late), Mexico (38,500 MT), Canada (35,700 MT), and Ecuador (32,900 MT). |
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Comments and Performance Indicators |
Export commitments are 13.9% ahead of a year-ago, compared to 14.3% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2022-23 will increase 7.7% from the previous marketing year in 2023-24. |
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Soyoil |
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Actual Sales (in MT) |
2023-24: 100 |
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Expectations |
2023-24: (5,000)-10,000 |
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Weekly Sales Details |
Net sales of 100 MT for 2023/2024 were down 97 percent from the previous week and 96 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (400 MT) were offset by reductions for Canada (200 MT). |
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Weekly Export Details |
Exports of 1,700 MT were up 58 percent from the previous week, but down 81 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (1,100 MT), Canada (400 MT), and the United Arab Emirates (100 MT). |
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Comments and Performance Indicators |
Export commitments are running 14.8% behind a year-ago, compared to 14.8% behind last week. USDA projects exports will decrease 7.4% in 2023-24. |
Abiove Predicts Decrease in Brazilian Soybean Harvest for 2024
Brazilian soybean harvest for the year 2024 is expected to reach approximately 153.8 million tons, marking a 4% decline from the record level achieved in 2023, which stood at 160.3 million tons. This projection was announced by analysts affiliated with the Association of Vegetable Oil Producers (Abiove).
- Anticipated Decline in Export Volumes
In light of this forecast, industry experts foresee a reduction in oilseed export volumes to 97.8 million tons, down from the record high of 101.86 million tons recorded in the previous year. Correspondingly, shipments of soybean meal are also likely to decrease, from 22.5 million tons to 21.6 million tons, while soybean oil exports are expected to decline from 2.33 million tons to 1.15 million tons.
- Rise in Domestic Soybean Oil Consumption
Conversely, domestic consumption of soybean oil is projected to rise by 1 million tons, reaching 9.7 million tons compared to the previous year. This increase is attributed to the uptick in biofuel mandate, contributing to higher demand for soybean oil in the domestic market.
Decline in Oilseed Reserves in Russia
Oilseed reserves in Russian Federation have decreased by 24.8% compared to the previous year. As of the beginning of the current month, domestic agricultural organizations estimate oilseed reserves at 3.1 million tons, marking a nearly 25% decrease from the corresponding period last year.
Sunflower residues, a significant component of oilseed reserves, amounted to 1.5 million tons by April 1, representing a 24.5% decline from the previous year. Additionally, reserves of grains and legumes saw a decrease of 5.7%, reaching 23.2 million tons, with wheat reserves remaining steady at 14.6 million tons and corn reserves declining to 2.3 million tons.
Astarta’s Record Soybean Processing
In 2023, Astarta, a leading agricultural holding, achieved a record volume of soybean processing, reaching 232 thousand tons. This 10% increase in processing volume resulted in an 11% rise in soybean meal production and a 13% increase in soybean oil production compared to previous year
The decline in soybean oil prices by 36% in 2023, juxtaposed with a 17% increase in soybean meal sales volumes, enabled Astarta to generate revenue of 122 million euros, maintaining parity with the previous year. Notably, exports accounted for 82% of this revenue. The company attributes its success partly to an expansion in biogas production and a transition from fossil fuels to biomass fuel, increasing the share of natural gas replacement in soybean processing from 50% in 2022 to 75% in 2023.
Price Trends in Global Rapeseed and Canola Markets
Recent developments in world markets indicate a decline in prices for rapeseed and canola. May rapeseed futures on the MATIF exchange in Paris dropped by nearly 2.5%, settling at €448.25 per ton. This downturn is attributed to surplus oilseed stocks from the previous harvest in Europe and the advanced maturation of the new crop.
Similarly, August futures for rapeseed of the upcoming harvest witnessed a decline, reaching €449 per ton. Market analysts foresee additional pressure on prices stemming from the vegetable oils and oil market dynamics. Moreover, the Winnipeg exchange reported a drop in May canola futures by approximately 4% to $444 per ton, influenced by the reduced demand from the biofuel sector and the competitive pricing of soybean oil in the United States.
In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a Neutral to bearish trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.0 to $12.0 per bushel.
