In March, Argentina saw a significant surge in soybean processing, marking a notable increase from the previous month. soybean processing volumes reached 2.99 million tons, a rise of 0.6 million tons compared to February. This uptick in processing activity underscores Argentina’s growing role in the global soybean market.

• Record Soybean Processing Volume

The end of the first quarter witnessed a record-breaking soybean processing volume in Argentina, reaching an impressive 7.48 million tons. This figure represents a substantial increase of 1.9 million tons compared to the same period in 2023. The surge in processing volume highlights Argentina’s continued dominance in soybean production and export.

• Increased Export of Soybean Oil and Meal

Argentina also saw a notable increase in the export of soybean oil and meal in March. Soybean oil exports surged to 453 thousand tons, a significant rise from 250 thousand tons the previous year. Additionally, soybean meal exports reached 2.16 million tons, further solidifying Argentina’s position as a key player in the global soybean market. The first quarter of 2024 witnessed robust performance in Argentina’s soybean export sector. During this period, Argentina exported 5.23 million tons of soybean meal and 1.3 million tons of soybean oil to international markets,

• Decline in Sunflower Processing

While soybean processing surged, the volume of sunflower processing in Argentina experienced a decline in March. Sunflower processing dropped to 374 thousand tons from 444 thousand tons in March 2023, reflecting shifting dynamics in the agricultural sector.

China’s soybean imports from the US plunged by 50% in March compared to last year, as buyers opted for cheaper offerings from Brazil. China’s soybean imports from Brazil surged by 81% in March, reaching 3.02 million tons, exceeding half of the total imports for the month. Total arrivals fell to a four-year low in March to 5.54 million tons, hinged on high prices and weak hog margins discouraging feed crushing. In Q1, China’s US soybean shipments halved to 7.14 million tons, while Brazilian shipments soared by 155% to 9.99 million tons, expanding Brazil’s market share in China to 54%, surpassing the US at 38%.

European Oilseed Processing Trends

European Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association (FEDIOL) reported positive trends in oilseed processing in the European Union (EU). In March 2024, EU oil extraction plants processed over 3.55 million tons of oilseeds, marking an 8% increase from the previous reporting month. Moreover, oilseed processing for the first quarter of 2024 totaled 10.341 million tons, up from 9.723 million tons in the same period in 2023, indicating steady growth in the EU oilseed sector.

 Rising Soybean Prices in Ukraine

• Soybean Prices Surge Amidst Growing Competition

Soybean prices in Ukraine are witnessing an upward trajectory, driven by intensified competition among exporters and processors. This surge comes as both entities aim to secure their reserves ahead of the upcoming season.

• Factors Driving the Price Increase

Analysts attribute the rise in oilseed prices to multiple factors. Firstly, agricultural producers are holding back sales in anticipation of even higher prices, contributing to the scarcity of raw materials. Additionally, the intensification of supplies from South America in May is expected to reduce the demand for Ukrainian soybeans, potentially leading to a decline in purchase costs. However, uncertainties loom as the weather conditions in June and the outcomes of the sowing campaign in the United States could reignite price hikes.

• Road Export Trends in April

Ukraine exported approximately 247 thousand tons of agricultural products via road transport from April 1 to April 22. This figure marks a slight decrease from the 260 thousand tons exported during the same period last month. Notably, sunflower oil and sugar constituted the bulk of shipments, with 42 thousand tons and 44 thousand tons, respectively.

• Evaluation of Rapeseed Exports

Since the beginning of the month, Ukraine has exported nearly 120 thousand tons of rapeseed to foreign markets, according to analysts from the PUSK cooperative. However, they view the current export pace as sluggish, primarily driven by the sale of remnants from the previous harvest.

Forecast: Increased Soybean Harvest in Uruguay

Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) anticipate a rise in soybean production volumes in Uruguay for the 2024/25 season. Projections suggest a yield of approximately 3.4 million tons, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous season.

• Drivers Behind Increased Production

The forecasted boost in soybean production is attributed to a 10% expansion in acreage, reaching 1.35 million hectares. This expansion is expected to bolster gross oilseed yields. Consequently, exports of soybeans are projected to surge, aided by the recovery from a historic drought.

In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a Neutral or trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.0 to $12.0 per bushel.