US Department Of Agriculture Report For Wheat, Soybean, Corn Grains In Annual Outlook 2023-2024

Agricultural Outlook


Macroeconomic, geopolitical, and weather-related uncertainty are mixed in with cautious optimism in Washington, DC, USA.

That was the overarching theme that was discussed during the annual outlook for grains and oilseeds for 2023–2024 that took place last month at the 99th Agricultural Outlook Forum hosted by the US Department of Agriculture.

Numerous factors are involved in the 2023–24 calculus. For the time being, the Federal Reserve is continuing its aggressive campaign of raising interest rates to combat inflation. A strong US dollar, which is expected to remain elevated through 2023, is tied to that. Inputs like fertilizer have higher prices. The Black Sea, a key production region, is still in conflict. Additionally, crop weather is an annual surprise.

Prices have risen as a result of limited commodity supplies. The cereal and bakery products group saw a 13% increase in 2022, compared to a 10% increase across the entire food category.

Andrew Sowell, an agricultural economist in the Crops Branch, Market and Trade Economics Division of the Economic Research Service of the USDA and the coordinator of the agency’s Wheat Outlook Program since June 2021, stated, “Price inflation was elevated for a broad array of products within this grouping.”

He stated, “Flour, breakfast cereal, bread, and a lot of other things are particularly interesting because cereal products typically do not see significant price inflation.” In the past year, a lot has changed there. However, in the United States, demand for cereal products is generally thought to be fairly price-insensitive.

Despite a general decline over the past few years, stocks of wheat and corn remain relatively tight. Soybean stocks have remained fairly stable, but they are still below the highs seen in 2018 and 2019 during the US-China trade war. According to Sowell, prices for the three main agricultural commodities are still high, but they are lower than they were in 2022, when they were at their highest point.

The three markets saw an increase in uncertainty and volatility following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but wheat saw the most significant increase, reaching all-time highs in May 2022. Prices continued to rise as a result of drought conditions in the southern Plains of the United States, but they began to fall when tight-supply concerns were eased by new crop wheat, the Black Sea Grain Initiative allowed Ukrainian exports to resume from the region, and Russia initiated a robust shipment program.

Farm costs are still high, but supplies like diesel fuel and fertilizer are going down. The latter’s base materials are frequently produced in Russia, so sanctions continue to influence price. Due to the generally lower cost structure of the crop, farmer seeding of soybeans may be affected by increased input costs.

The crop projections provided by the USDA for the years 2023 and 2024 are based on a trend yield and normal planting progress. assume that the current policies will not change; and keep the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as it is. The USDA projects that 228 million acres will be seeded with wheat, corn, and soybeans, an increase of nearly 3 percent. Whenever understood, it would be the biggest land for the three yields in nine years.


Based on trend yields, the USDA anticipates that corn acres will rise by approximately 2.4 million acres to 91 million by commodity, boosting production.

Exports are anticipated to rise as a result of modest growth in global trade, tighter exportable supplies in Ukraine, and growing imports for China. Domestic feed and residual use are anticipated to rebound with increased supplies.

Despite steady gasoline consumption, the projected use of ethanol is unchanged at 5.25 billion buses. The USDA believes that corn ending stocks will be rebuilt.


In terms of soybeans, the USDA anticipates that acreage will remain roughly the same at 87.5 million acres and that production will rise as yield returns to trend. Soybean crush levels are expected to rise as a result of increased soy oil and biofuel consumption. The USDA predicts that larger stockpiles will result in lower prices, despite the fact that exports are thought to see a slight increase. However, large supplies from Brazil continue to limit exports.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture  outlook , as more soy is crushed, more soy oil and soymeal are produced, which should lead to some significant changes for the entire soy complex. Domestic meal consumption is anticipated to skyrocket as more soymeal becomes available and its profile in feed rations improves. Since Argentina’s supplies will become constrained as a result of unfavorable crop weather, soymeal exports are anticipated to rise in the early months of the 2023–2024 crop year. According to Sowell, soybean oil biofuel use is expected to increase by approximately 8%, and soybean oil exports are also anticipated to rise.

Also Read :Ukraine Grain Exports Tumble

He stated, “Crush margins are expected to continue to be strong.” Although not quite as high as the previous three years, it is still high by historical standards. It is anticipated that the oil component will contribute slightly less to the total value of soybeans. In keeping with the recent trend of oil accounting for a significant portion of the value of soybeans, crushed remains above forty percent. Meal is still very valuable, especially in the current high price environment, but growth in the biodiesel industry is a major reason why oil accounts for such a large portion of the overall value.


The USDA anticipates that strong pricing will cause wheat acres to increase by 3.8 million to 49.5 million, which would be the most in seven crop years if realized. Based on a 10-year average for most production states, the USDA calculated a harvested-to-planted figure using winter wheat planted projections from the Jan. 12 Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. The Department used the 2022-23 ratio for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas because of the drought, which resulted in a slight decrease in the harvested-to-planted ratio. The Agriculture Outlook believes that other spring wheat and durum are up slightly year over year.

Spring wheat and durum are selling well, but there are also a lot of profitable alternatives in the Northern Plains: Sowell mentioned corn, soy, canola, and a number of others. However, once more, we are assuming normal planting conditions, which are particularly important in that part of the country. The harvested area has increased by about 8% to 38.4 million acres.

After two drought years, it is thought that wheat yields will return to their trend levels. While larger supplies are thought to increase feed and residual use, food use is anticipated to maintain a slow growth pattern in line with historical trend lines. In some locations, the price of wheat may be competitive in the months of June, July, and August, when exports are rising but remain relatively low in the face of fierce competition. Sowell stated that stocks should slightly rebound but remain tight.

Common threads According to Sowell, the Agriculture Outlook export expectations for wheat, corn, and soybeans are influenced in large part by the declining US market share.

He stated, “The United States has lost its historic position as the leading exporter in the world.” The United States held nearly 30 percent of the global wheat market for 15 years. However, we are currently only 10% there. For much of the past decade, Russia and the European Union have been the biggest exporters. Canada and Australia have also been significant exporters, recently surpassing the United States. Wheat exports are expected to rise from their current 51-year low in the coming year, but they will still be relatively weak by historical standards due to the same competitive dynamic.

Increased shipments from Argentina and Brazil have put pressure on US corn and soybean exports. US corn exports continue to be the largest in the world. Brazil, on the other hand, is the most important supplier of soybeans. Prices are expected to remain high overall, according to the Agriculture Outlook, but to slightly fall as supplies rise. Prices for corn are expected to fall by $1.10 per bushel to $5.60, wheat by 50 cents per bushel to $8.50, and soybeans by $1.40 per bushel to $12.90, according to the Department.

Sowell stated that numerous factors remain at play for the upcoming crop year.

“Does the Great Plains’ drought persist?” He inquired. What will the conditions be like for planting wheat in spring? Is it possible for Ukraine to produce and export? Will the United States dollar remain strong? What other potential global supply shocks are there? What is the climate like in South America? All of these are wildcards. Based on our stated assumptions, these projections are our best estimates.

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The annual Prospective Plantings report, which includes farmers’ detailed extended acreage for the major commodities, is the next release of fundamental data from the Agriculture Outlook at the end of March. The first survey-based data on what spring wheat and durum plant intentions are contained for market participants. A complete forecast for the new crop and NASS production estimates for winter wheat will be released in May. Additionally, a supply and demand projection for wheat by class and a vast collection of NASS data will be released beginning in August.

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