Enhancing Soybean Insights: Market Trends and Projections
Today Soybean market futures for May delivery futures have slumps by 5.75¢, reaching $11.81¼ per bushel. Concurrently, soymeal experienced a dip of $4.3 to $333.45 per short ton, while soy oil displayed resilience, surges 0.29¢ to reach 48.24 per pound.
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Soybean |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 11.8575 | -5.75 | 11.9625 | 12.0175 | 11.815 | 11.8575 |
| 24-Jul | 11.995 | -5.75 | 12.0925 | 12.1575 | 11.96 | 11.995 |
| 24-Aug | 11.985 | -5.25 | 12.1 | 12.1275 | 11.95 | 11.985 |
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Soybean Oil |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 0.4824 | 0.29 | 0.4812 | 0.4879 | 0.4806 | 0.4824 |
| 24-Jul | 0.4876 | 0.28 | 0.4873 | 0.4931 | 0.486 | 0.4876 |
| 24-Aug | 0.4882 | 0.28 | 0.4875 | 0.4932 | 0.4865 | 0.4882 |
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Soybean Meal |
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| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 3.334 | -4.3 | 3.383 | 3.387 | 3.313 | 3.334 |
| 24-Jul | 3.373 | -3.7 | 3.413 | 3.419 | 3.356 | 3.373 |
| 24-Aug | 3.383 | -3.5 | 3.427 | 3.427 | 3.368 | 3.383 |
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By Abdul Hameed Team |
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Click Here To View March 28, 2024 Report
Soybean Market Analysis: Price Fluctuations and Trade Insights
In the realm of soybean trading, fluctuations are not uncommon. Today, soybeans initiated trading on a positive note, buoyed by the support from soybean oil and other vegetable oils. However, the market dynamics swiftly shifted, and soybeans are currently trading lower for the day. This decline is mirrored in the performance of soybean meal, while soybean oil, after experiencing initial gains, has now retreated. The recent report released on Thursday met the trade expectations, yet the outlook for larger soybean planted acres casts a bearish shadow over the market.
Analysis of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Exports
According to the latest data from the Grain Transportation Report (GTR) by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the cumulative exports of corn, soybeans, and wheat for the period up to March 14, 2023-24, show a 5% decrease compared to the previous year. Intriguingly, outstanding sales have surged by 7%. This signals a complex market scenario with contrasting trends.
| USDA’s Weekly Grain Export Inspections | |
| Week Ended March 28, 2024 | |
| Corn | |
| Actual (MT) | 1,431,535 |
| Expectations (MT) | 800,000-1,375,000 |
| Comments | Export inspections are up 176,370 MT from last week’s tally. Inspections are running 33.5% ahead of a year ago, compared to 33.6% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 2.100 billion bu., 26.4% above the previous marketing year. |
| Wheat | |
| Actual (MT) | 498,989 |
| Expectations (MT) | 275,000-425,000 |
| Comments | Export inspections are up 66,225 MT from the previous week’s figure. Shipments are running 12.3% behind a year-ago, compared to 15.1% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 710 million bu., down 6.5% from the previous marketing year. |
| Soybeans | |
| Actual (MT) | 414,484 |
| Expectations (MT) | 500,000-900,000 |
| Comments | Export inspections are down 370,632 MT from last week’s tally. Inspections are running 18.7% behind a year ago, compared to 18.7% behind last week. USDA’s 2023-24 export forecast of 1.720 billion bu., which is 13.7% below 2022-23. |
| 2023-24 Grain Exports Comparison | |||
| Grain | Total Commitments | Accumulated Exports | Outstanding Sales |
| Corn | Up 19% | Down 5% | Up 7% |
| Soybeans | Down 19% | Down 18% | – |
| Wheat | Up 3% | Down 9% | – |
Predictions and Forecasts: Soybean Crush and Ethanol Use
The upcoming USDA report is anticipated to reveal promising figures for soybean crush and corn-for-ethanol use. Projections suggest that February soybean crush is poised to reach 196.7 million bushels, reflecting a modest increase from the previous month and a substantial leap from February 2023 figures. Similarly, corn-for-ethanol utilization is expected to witness a notable uptick, signaling optimistic prospects for the corn market.
Decline in Soybean Oil Usage for Biofuels
Contrary to the anticipated surge in soybean oil usage for biofuels, recent data paints a different picture. In January, soybean oil utilized for biofuel production in the US plummeted to 960 million pounds, marking the first instance of it falling below the 1 billion-pound threshold since May of the previous year.
Global Trade Dynamics: Soybean Imports and Domestic Production
The March 28 Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report sheds light on the evolving landscape of soybean imports and domestic production. Forecasts indicate a surge in soybean imports for both crush and food use in 2023-24 and 2024-25. However, soybean meal imports are anticipated to experience a slight dip, attributed to increased domestic crush capacity. Vietnam, a key player in the soybean market, has maintained steady imports, with Brazil and the United States dominating the supply chain.
| Outstanding Shipments Comparison | |||
| Grain | Remaining to Ship (million tonnes) | Year-over-Year Change | Three-Year Average Change |
| Corn | 29.2 | 24% | – |
| Soybeans | 11.3 | 5% | – |
| Wheat | 4.8 | 61% | -18% |
| Top 5 Export Markets Decline Comparison (Percentage Change) | |||
| Market | Corn | Soybeans | Wheat |
| Egypt | – | -52% | – |
| China | -72% | -25% | – |
| Japan | – | -5% | – |
| Mexico | – | -2% | – |
Germany Boosts Rapeseed Imports in 2023/24 Marketing Year
Germany’s rapeseed imports surged during the first half of the 2023/24 season, marking a significant increase compared to the previous agricultural year. According to data released by the country’s Federal Statistical Office, Germany brought in nearly 3.5 million tons of rapeseed, up from 2.6 million tons during the same period in the preceding season.
Growth in Rapeseed Imports
In the initial half of the 2023/24 season, Germany witnessed a notable uptick in rapeseed imports, signaling robust demand and strategic procurement. The surge in imports highlights Germany’s reliance on external sources to meet its rapeseed requirements.
Insights from Federal Statistical Office
Data provided by the Federal Statistical Office reveals a substantial rise in rapeseed imports, underscoring shifts in market dynamics and agricultural trade patterns. The statistics shed light on Germany’s evolving agricultural landscape and its growing dependence on imported rapeseed.
In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a Neutral trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.3 to $12.3 per bushel.
