Soybean Insights: Market Trends and Projections
In the realm of Soybean Market Futures trading, May delivery have slumps by 2.25¢, reaching $11.80¼ per bushel. Concurrently, soymeal experienced a Up of $3.5 to $333.50 per short ton, while soy oil displayed resilience, slumps 0.70¢ to reach 48.15¢ per pound.
| Soybean | ||||||
| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 11.8 | -2.25 | 11.8225 | 11.8675 | 11.7025 | 11.8 |
| 24-Jul | 11.9225 | -3 | 11.9525 | 11.995 | 11.835 | 11.9225 |
| 24-Aug | 11.9125 | -2.75 | 11.94 | 11.9775 | 11.8275 | 11.9125 |
| Soybean Oil | ||||||
| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 0.4815 | -0.7 | 0.4885 | 0.491 | 0.4783 | 0.4815 |
| 24-Jul | 0.4867 | -0.7 | 0.4934 | 0.4961 | 0.4837 | 0.4867 |
| 24-Aug | 0.4875 | -0.71 | 0.4947 | 0.4967 | 0.4849 | 0.4875 |
| Soybean Meal | ||||||
| Contract | Last | Change | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 24-May | 3.335 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.339 | 3.278 | 3.335 |
| 24-Jul | 3.37 | 3.4 | 3.335 | 3.373 | 3.314 | 3.37 |
| 24-Aug | 3.379 | 3.1 | 3.349 | 3.381 | 3.325 | 3.379 |
Click Here To View April 03, 2024 Report
US Soybean Planting Outlook 2024: Forecasts and Trends
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released its planting intention report for 2024, projecting a significant increase in soybean cultivation across the nation. Here’s a breakdown of the latest forecasts and market trends:
- Soybean Planting Projections
According to the USDA report released on Thursday, the projected area for soybean planting in 2024 is expected to reach 86.5 million acres, marking a 3% increase from the previous year’s figures. This estimate slightly surpassed market expectations, which had anticipated around 86.3 million acres. During the USDA Annual Forum held in February, initial forecasts hinted at an even larger planting area of 87.5 million acres. In comparison, the actual planting in the previous year stood at 83.6 million acres.
- Regional Insights
The USDA report indicates that 24 out of the 29 soybean-producing states are likely to witness either an increase or maintenance in planting activities. This suggests a widespread trend of expansion or stability in soybean cultivation across various regions of the United States.
- Stocks and Inventory
Quarterly soybean stocks in the United States, as of March 1, amounted to 1.85 billion bushels, translating to approximately 50.35 million tons. This figure reflects a notable 9% increase from the corresponding period in 2023. The reported volume surpassed market expectations, which had projected stocks to be around 1.83 billion bushels. Notably, on-farm stocks witnessed a substantial surge of 24% compared to the previous year, reaching 933 million bushels, while off-farm stocks decreased slightly by 3% to 912 million bushels.
USDA Weekly Export Sales Report (Week Ended March 28, 2024)
| Soybeans | |
| Actual Sales (in MT) | 2023-24: 194,200 |
| Expectations (in MT) | 2023-24: 200,000-600,000 |
| Weekly Sales Details | Net sales of 194,200 MT for 2023/2024 were down 26 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (153,900 MT, including 200,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (97,000 MT), the Netherlands (57,500 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,500 MT), South Korea (25,200 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Japan (18,400 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (235,000 MT). |
| Weekly Export Details | Exports of 549,100 MT were down 30 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (284,700 MT), Mexico (92,500 MT), the Netherlands (57,500 MT), Indonesia (28,600 MT), and South Korea (25,300 MT). |
| Comments and Performance Indicators | Export commitments are running 18.8% behind a year-ago, compared to 18.9% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 1.720 billion bu., down 13.7% from the previous marketing year. |
| Soymeal | |
| Actual Sales (in MT) | 2023-24: 202,200 |
| Expectations | 2023-24: 75,000-350,000 |
| Weekly Sales Details | Net sales of 202,200 MT for 2023/2024 were up 59 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for the Philippines (93,200 MT), Costa Rica (19,900 MT, including 9,200 MT switched from El Salvador and decreases of 500 MT), Venezuela (18,600 MT, including 15,900 switched from Colombia), the Dominican Republic (18,100 MT), and Mexico (17,900 MT, including decreases of 4,400 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (7,900 MT), the United Kingdom (7,000 MT), El Salvador (5,000 MT), Jamaica (100 MT), and the Leeward – Windward Islands (100 MT). Net sales of 32,600 MT for 2024/2025 were reported for Canada (30,200 MT) and Mexico (2,400 MT). |
| Weekly Export Details | Exports of 280,000 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (49,800 MT), Mexico (45,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (41,800 MT), Honduras (30,100 MT), and Colombia (22,600 MT). |
| Comments and Performance Indicators | Export commitments are 15.4% ahead of a year-ago, compared to 16.3% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2022-23 will increase 7.7% from the previous marketing year in 2023-24. |
| Soyoil | |
| Actual Sales (in MT) | 2023-24: 3,100 |
| Expectations | 2023-24: (5,000)-10,000 |
| Weekly Sales Details | Net sales of 3,100 MT for 2023/2024 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 74 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (2,300 MT) and Canada (700 MT). |
| Weekly Export Details | Exports of 13,300 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 71 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4- week average. The destinations were primarily to Venezuela (4,000 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), Mexico (2,600 MT), and Colombia (2,500 MT). |
| Comments and Performance Indicators | Export commitments are running 19.4% behind a year-ago, compared to 5.8% ahead last week. USDA projects exports will decrease 7.4% in 2023-24. |
India’s Rapeseed Production Projections and Market Impact
Analysts from the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) have projected a record-high rapeseed production for India in 2024, anticipating a harvest of 12.09 million tons. This forecast suggests a promising 7% increase compared to the previous year’s production levels. The anticipated surge in rapeseed output is expected to alleviate India’s reliance on costly imports of palm and sunflower oil from various countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia.
Factors Influencing Production Growth
The growth in rapeseed harvest is attributed to the expansion of crop areas by an estimated 5% to 10 million hectares. However, analysts caution that production growth might face limitations due to adverse weather conditions, including untimely precipitation and hail during February and March.
Ukraine’s Sunflower Processing Industry Dynamics
Recent data from APK-Inform analysts highlight significant growth in sunflower processing volumes in Ukraine. Processing volumes surged to 1.49 million tons last month, marking the highest level since the beginning of the year and reflecting a 9% increase compared to February and a 10% increase compared to March 2023.
Market Trends and Export Dynamics
Analysts attribute the robust processing rates to increased exports of sunflower oil in the current season, which have facilitated the steady operation of ports in Odessa and Danube. Despite the optimistic outlook for sunflower exports to the EU and reduced import duties on oilseeds in Turkey, experts anticipate a moderate decline in sunflower processing volume for the current agricultural year, estimating it to range between 13.3-13.8 million tons.
USDA investments of $1.5 billion to bolster climate-smart agriculture conservation
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has unveiled a substantial investment of $1.5 billion to bolster climate-smart agriculture conservation initiatives. This funding injection is designated to support projects under the Regional Conservation Partnership Program (RCPP), with a primary focus on aiding farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners in implementing and expanding conservation practices while mitigating the impacts of climate change.
Key Initiatives and Funding Allocation
The USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) will oversee the administration of the program, aiming to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of the RCPP process to ensure seamless implementation.
Funding Opportunities
- RCPP Classic: This avenue entails NRCS contracts and easements, fostering collaborations among producers, landowners, communities, and partnering organizations to execute conservation projects.
- RCPP Alternative Funding Arrangements (AFA): Under this scheme, the lead partner is empowered to engage directly with agricultural producers, facilitating the development and implementation of innovative conservation strategies tailored to specific needs.
Tribal-Led Projects
A noteworthy component of the allocation includes earmarking $100 million for Tribal-led projects, reflecting a commitment to supporting Indigenous communities in their conservation efforts.
Significant Enhancements and Targets
Increased Funding
The current allocation of $1.5 billion represents a substantial increase from the $500 million allocated in the previous fiscal year, underscoring the USDA’s heightened emphasis on advancing climate-smart agriculture practices.
Streamlined Project Negotiation
In an endeavor to expedite project implementation, the NRCS aims to reduce project negotiation timelines from 15 months to a swift six-month period. This streamlined approach seeks to minimize bureaucratic hurdles and accelerate the deployment of conservation initiatives on the ground.
Market Insights and Future Projections
In the commodities market, the ICE Futures canola market experienced downward pressure on Thursday, influenced by declines in comparable oils and a strengthening Canadian dollar. Analysts suggest that a weaker US dollar could further exacerbate pressure on canola values. Weather forecasts indicate variable precipitation patterns across different regions of Canada, with southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan expecting significant rainfall while the eastern Prairies remain dry with high temperatures exceeding 10 degrees Celsius.
In conclusion, the soybean market’s intricacies reflect a delicate dance of supply, demand, and global dynamics. As we navigate these fluctuations, staying attuned to market trends and agricultural forecasts is paramount across the supply chain. So we are predicting that soybean market project a Neutral trend Projections and as well in hovering within the range of $11.3 to $12.3 per bushel.
